Will Cuba follow China's path?

 ZHANG QUANYI

SHANGHAI, China, Cuba's National Assembly smoothly transferred the country's presidency from Fidel Castro to his brother Raul Castro last month. Although the succession was within the Castro family, the world in general acclaimed this power transfer, hoping it would give Cuba a new face to the world.

Former President Fidel Castro controlled the Caribbean island for 49 years. He was both a revolutionary and a symbol of nationalism to his country. In 1959 he overthrew the regime of General Fulgencio Batista, though the regime's collapse can be attributed as much to internal decay as to the challenge of Castro's revolutionary movement.

The Cuban government later progressively dissolved the capitalist system, establishing a centrally planned economy, which largely resulted in Cuba's present difficult situation.

Cuba was largely dependent on the Soviet Union until its collapse, and isolated from international markets dominated by the United States. The United States has embargoed the country since the 1960s, and extended its policy in 1996 to penalize foreign companies that deal with Cuba.

Cuba's economy is now in a state of bankruptcy. Wages are inadequate, housing and transportation are in crisis and the health and education systems -- once the pride and joy of the revolution -- have deteriorated badly. There are insufficient supplies of food, medicine and basic industrial products. High unemployment has destabilized the country economically and politically.

Cuba's current situation bears some resemblance to China's circumstances in 1978, when China called for renovations in its static planned collective economic system. From 1966-1976 China had endured the Cultural Revolution, when all private commercial activities were banned and the tightly controlled planned economy brought the people as well as the economy to the brink of collapse.

Therefore, when the "capitalist roader" Deng Xiaoping came to power and initiated his open-door policy, the Chinese people acclaimed him and anticipated his reforms with great enthusiasm. Deng had been sacked by Mao Zedong, the founder of the People's Republic of China, because of his capitalistic ideas.

Deng did not disappoint his people much. He successfully guided China onto the track of reform, tried by various means to abolish Mao Zedong's personality cult, suspended the ideology of class struggle, and gradually introducing a market economy to China. In addition he adopted flexible policies to take advantage of foreign direct investment, setting up several special economic zones in China's coastal areas, which set the example for other areas to follow in the process of modernization.

Deng's pragmatism has born great fruit. Since he began the reforms, China's economy has experienced a consistent rise. Gross domestic product reached US$3.43 trillion in 2007, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, making it the third largest economy in the world after the United States and Japan.

China is also the third largest exporting country after the United States and Germany. The country's foreign currency reserves are the highest in the world, surpassing US$1.4 trillion. China appears to have shifted from a primarily agricultural country to an industrial one.

China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, and will host the Olympic Games in Beijing in 2008 and the World Expo in Shanghai in 2010. It can be said that China has become a member of world society.

Furthermore, China has established healthier relationships with other countries, especially the big Western powers, and has become active in world affairs. It has been positively involved in international efforts to handle issues in Iraq, Iran and North Korea. Over a period of 30 years, China has become a stakeholder and a member of international society.

Facing an economic situation similar to that of China 30 years ago, will Raul Castro, like Deng Xiaoping, become a Cuban reformer? Will Cuba follow China's path in opening its door to the outside world? And will international society respond positively to possible reforms in Cuba?

Raul Castro has sent some signals that he may partly loosen controls on the economy. For example, he plans to allow some Western luxury products into Cuban markets, such as sunglasses, videos and cameras. However, Castro's vision for modernization is not identical with Deng's, and Cuba's background is not the same as China's.

First, Raul Castro has persistently supported and implemented Fidel Castro's policies. He was an army general and defense minister for 49 years, hence, a de facto policy-maker. Having been so close to his brother in the inner power circle, Raul Castro would not risk accusations of abandoning his principles or tarnishing his family's history and glory. Even if he does initiate some reforms, he will not go so far as Deng, who had been ousted by the central leadership.

Secondly, the influence of the first generation of leaders in the Cuban republic is still intact. Fidel Castro is still alive, as are other senior leaders. Aging officials and other leftists will not allow Raul to alter Cuba's Constitution or fundamentally change the socialist system. For example, 75-year-old former Interior Minister Ramiro Valdes has been a strong supporter of Fidel since 1953, when the Cuban revolution began. He does not agree with Raul on matter of reform.

It can therefore be presumed that Raul Castro will not go so far in carrying out reforms in Cuba. He is already 77 years old. He may take some small steps to stabilize his power and make his mark on the presidency, but that is all. In his address to the National Assembly, Raul Castro proposed that Fidel should be consulted on important decisions.

Thirdly, the situation faced by Cuba is different from China's in some ways. China's open-door policy benefited from the geopolitics of the Cold War, when the United States and the former Soviet Union were competing for hegemony. Accordingly China and the United States, as well as other Western countries, could cooperate economically regardless of ideological differences.

After 1978, China was able to take advantage of the geopolitical situation and attract large amounts of foreign direct investment, especially from Japan, the United States and Western Europe. This investment played a significant role in boosting China's economy in a short time.

Cuba does not have the same advantage. Even if the new president wants to reform, the supportive environment is lacking; the Cold War is over. If the Soviet Union still existed, Western countries -- particularly the United States -- might want to be first to assist Cuba economically.

However, in the foreseeable future, Cuba will only reluctantly distance itself from socialism, taking a few aggressive steps to open to the outside world. Unless Cuba resolutely declares that it is giving up socialism, Western states, especially the United States, will not easily abandon their hostile policies toward Cuba. They will merely continue their containment strategy toward the island nation.

Therefore the assessment of Fidel Castro's daughter, Alina Fernandez -- who lives in the United States and has long opposed her father's regime -- may be correct. She told CNN just after her uncle took over the presidency, "I think that the government will remain mostly the same, but I think they are going to bring on different faces that they need," she said.

The face of Cuba itself is unlikely to change significantly for awhile.